Was the Kenyan Peace Deal Brokered by Kofi Annan (Former UN Sec. Gen.) choreographed or was it a Kenyan Solution?
This is the question exercising the minds of Kenyans, their East African neighbours and the entire African continent. The pressure from the international community and especially Americans and the European Union have left many questioning the statement made by Mr Annan on his arrival in Nairobi mid-January 2007. The former UN boss told the Kenyan population that he did not have a solution to the Kenyan problem. "The solution will come from Kenyans themselves", Mr Annan told the Kenyan population that was in the throes of a crisis. When he arrived in the country, violence was the order of the day in western parts of the country as well as the Coast. Also affected were the informal settlements (slums) around Nairobi. At the time an estimated 1,500 Kenyans had been killed in ethnic fighting while another 600,000 had been displaced from their homes and farms.

The chaos had erupted following the December 27, 2007 general elections that saw incumbent President Mwai Kibaki retain his position while the leading opposition figure Mr Raila Odinga emerge as close second. Mr Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) disputed the presidential results claiming the Party of National Unity (PNU) had stolen the vote. Consequently, the Mr Odinga and ODM rejected the results and proceeded to call for nationwide mass action to force President Kibaki out. The calls for mass action however deteriorated into ethnic fight pittin+-g communities allied to Mr Odinga and Kibaki's Kikuyu tribe. As the country descended into chaos, regional leaders led by former Nobel Peace prize laureate Archbishop Desmond Tutu of South Africa flew into Nairobi into an effort to stem Kenya's slide into a failed state. He was soon followed by a team led by former African presidents that included Joaqium Chissano (Mozambique), Kenneth Kaunda (Zambia), Benjamin Mkapa (Tanzania) and Festus Mogae (Botswana) among others. But all these efforts failed as both PNU and ODM dug in with each side giving tough conditions for entering into any negotiations.

The PNU side claimed to have fairly won the December 27 election, demanded that ODM takes its position on the opposition benches and seek redress through the courts if they felt aggrieved. The party further rejected any international mediation saying the problems in Kenya could be adequately addressed internally. But ODM on the other hand laid its claim on the presidency saying its numerical strength in Parliament was testimony to their victory. It listed its amassing of the popular vote in six of the eight provinces as its reason for Mr Odinga to lay claim to the presidency. Further it ruled out going to court saying the judiciary was an extension of the executive under Kibaki. It thus demanded that Kibaki steps down as president, a re-run of the presidential race be repeated in six months and the entire Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) be disbanded. While the country literally went up in flames, the two parties adopted hard-line positions with the international community demanding that they enter into negotiations to share power. Ghanaian President John Kuffuor was the first to be dispatched to bring the two parties together. But even he could not bridge the gap between the two groups. He left after two days without achieving anything significant. However, he set the negotiations in motion and suggested Mr Annan as the person who could lead the two sides into a deal. The former UN boss was accepted by both sides and each picked four negotiators for the 41-day discussions that culminated in the signing of a power-sharing deal on February 28, 2008.

However, it is the signing of the deal and the process used to achieve the results that have raised more questions than answers. While the US and the EU insisted on real power-sharing, it was Annan who let it be known that there was need for a grand coalition. With the government side protesting about this statement coming from the chief negotiator, the former UN boss claimed to have been quoted out of context. But pressure from US secretary of State Ms Condoleezza Rice and other world leaders left no doubt that a grand coalition was the way to go. It therefore came as no surprise when Mr Annan suspended the negotiations on February 25 so that he could meet the two principals in the talks. The former UN boss claimed that the talks were not making progress because the negotiators could not resolve the issues on the table. The suspension was followed a day later by the arrival of Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete who is the chair of the African Union. As the two carried out shuttle diplomacy between the two principals, it took only 60 hours for a deal to share power to be struck. In the new arrangement, Kenya almost reverted to its independence constitution which provided for the position of prime minister. Mr Odinga will now become the prime minister with specific duties of co-ordinating and supervising ministries while Mr Kibaki would serve as head of State. Also to be created are two positions of deputy prime ministers to be shared by the two protagonists. The two will also choose a cabinet drawn from the two sides on a 50-50 basis and they will work together to give Kenya a new constitution within 12 months.

As the country gears for constitutional amendments to accommodate the peace deal, many Kenyans will be waiting to see whether the issues that led to the chaos on December 30, 2007 will be addressed. But the story of betrayal in Kenya in so far as the new constitution is concerned has been with its people since 1992. Will 2008 be the year when Kenyans' dreams are fulfilled? Time will tell. David Okwembah